With the presidential election fast approaching and the U.S. electorate becoming increasingly more diverse, the personal-finance website WalletHub conducted an in-depth analysis that addresses one of the most important political questions of our time: How Will Racial Minorities Shape Future Elections? This report comes on the heels of our recent analysis of the States with the Best & Worst Representation on Election Day.
In order to gauge the electoral impact of shifting demographics, WalletHub predicted which political party is likely to win the presidency from 2024 to 2060. By applying voter turnout rates for five ethnic/racial groups in the 2008 and 2016 elections to their projected population sizes from 2024 to 2060, we were able to estimate the share of votes that each party is likely to receive — and thus its likelihood of winning the White House — in each future election.| Projected Party Winner Based on 2016 Ethnic Voting Patterns | Projected Party Winner Based on 2008 Ethnic Voting Patterns | ||
| Year: | Political Party (% of Party Vote): | Year: | Political Party (% of Party Vote): |
| 2024 | Democrats (55.10%) | 2024 | Democrats (54.69%) |
| 2028 | Democrats (55.59%) | 2028 | Democrats (55.11%) |
| 2032 | Democrats (56.07%) | 2032 | Democrats (55.52%) |
| 2036 | Democrats (56.54%) | 2036 | Democrats (55.93%) |
| 2040 | Democrats (57.02%) | 2040 | Democrats (56.35%) |
| 2044 | Democrats (57.51%) | 2044 | Democrats (56.78%) |
| 2048 | Democrats (57.98%) | 2048 | Democrats (57.19%) |
| 2052 | Democrats (58.45%) | 2052 | Democrats (57.60%) |
| 2056 | Democrats (58.89%) | 2056 | Democrats (57.99%) |
| 2060 | Democrats (59.31%) | 2060 | Democrats (58.36%) |
