- Imvexxy and Bijuva are differentiated and compelling products that address an existing market need.
- Impact of emerging competition for Bijuva likely overblown.
- Annovera is essentially a superior Nuvaring generic.
- Execution risk still remains the biggest risk and link to potential dilution.
- Base case target price of $14-17 with Annovera included.
TherapeuticsMD's (TXMD) stock price has risen from a low of $3.51 in December '18 due to a combination of 1) market recovery and 2) great script count data. However, the stock price has once again remained under pressure with analysts citing: 1) lack of differentiation for Imvexxy and Bijuva, 2) emerging competition for Bijuva and 3) Annovera's launch likely to be lackluster.
Lack of differentiation for Imvexxy and Bijuva
Figure 1: Overview of Imvexxy's differentiation
Source: TXMD's JPM Presentation 2019
Being hormonal products, Imvexxy and Bijuva are chemically identical to products that exist for decades. The company has also admitted the products are essentially a better mousetrap. Emphasis on "better." Imvexxy does have compelling characteristics that address market demand (Refer to Figure 1). And Bijuva being the only FDA approved bio-identical E+P opens the door for the conversion of 12-18 million non-FDA approved compounded script.
