A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the September figure of 5.0%, does not signal a recession now.
The criteria for the model to signal the start of recessions are given in the original article and repeated in the Appendix.
Referring to the chart below, and looking at the end portion of it, one can see that none of the conditions for a recession start are currently present.
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